Quick Served: Australian Open Women's Final
Elena Rybakina wins. Is she one of the best servers ever?
Same match, different outcome. Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina did a solid re-enactment of their 2023 final, but this time Rybakina came from behind and stormed to the title. Andy and Producer Mike offer fresh reactions to the nailbiter final.
In this episode:
Where Rybakina lands among the top servers ever
Retooling the Rybakina conversation
Rybakina’s best-ever record against No. 1s
Andy’s men’s champion pick
How Andy would have reacted if he’d won a second major
Condolences to JW for not winning the women’s Bracket Challenge
Also, congratulations, Tokito Oda!
Women’s Final Recap
Elena Rybakina [5] def. Aryna Sabalenka [1] 6–4, 3–6, 6–4
The match was dominated by serves and nerves. Rybakina held both and was a little better and bolder down the stretch.
Sabalenka went up 3–0 in the third set, but Rybakina won six of the next seven games by stepping in and taking risks. This was Rybakina’s goal throughout the tournament. She said she was channeling the confidence she gained from winning the WTA Finals without dropping a match.
Sabalenka was 18/19 (95%) on first-serve points in the second set
Rybanka was 13/16 (81%) on first-serve points in the third set
Rybakina was 3-for-6 on break points, Sabalenka 2-for-10
Rybakina served 55% for the tournament but backed up her second serve nearly 50% of the time
Each player won 92 points
Sabalenka was 7–1 versus Rybakina in three-set matches going into the final
Rybakina has won her last 10 matches against Top 10 opponents
🎤 Rybakina
“I felt that if I get my chances here that I need to maybe risk a little bit more and go for my shots. I’m happy that being down, I was able to calm myself down, not being frustrated anymore, and just focus on each point and stay closer to the score.”
“I remember [when I won Wimbledon] I was not sleeping well, semis, even quarters. Final I don’t even talk, like, how many emotions and how many thoughts were going through my head. I was managing to sleep well here, and that’s a good thing. I mean, what’s the worst thing that can happen, which my coach always tells me, you lose, but then you get another opportunity to play next week. And we have so many slams yet, so I was kind of probably focused and not as stressed.”
🎤 Sabalenka
“I don’t know if I have any regrets. Maybe I should have tried to be more aggressive on my serve, knowing that I have a break and put pressure on her, but she played incredible.”
“Great tennis from her. Maybe not so smart for me, but as I say, today I’m a loser, maybe tomorrow I’m a winner, maybe again a loser. Hopefully not. Let’s see.”
Men’s Final Preview
History is on the line in tonight’s championship match between Carlos Alcaraz [1] and Novak Djokovic [4], when Rafael Nadal will be in the stands. Andy breaks down the challenge that Alcaraz presents for Djokovic that Jannik Sinner didn’t.
What’s at Stake
The outright Grand Slam record—Djokovic is currently tied with Margaret Court at 24
The career Grand Slam record—Alcaraz (22) would become the youngest man to achieve it, breaking Nadal’s record (24)
Oldest Slam winner—Djokovic (38) would take over the title from Ken Rosewall
Men’s Semifinals, Part 2: The Big Picture
Now that the titanic matches have settled, here’s how they fit into history.
Novak Djokovic [4] def. Jannik Sinner [2]
Djokovic is 21–0 in semis and finals in Melbourne. Rafael Nadal didn’t go undefeated in the final weekend in Paris—he lost one semifinal, to Djokovic.
Djokovic became the oldest Australian Open finalist in history at 38. Ken Rosewall is still the oldest Grand Slam finalist at 39.
Djokovic is the only male player in history to win at least 85% of his matches at each slam.
His winning percentage in Melbourne is 91%.
Sinner is 0–7 in matches over 4 hours long
Carlos Alcaraz [1] def. Alexander Zverev [3]
Alcaraz is the youngest man to reach all four Slam finals
It was the longest match of Zverev’s career
Longest semifinal in Australian Open history, 3rd longest AO match ever and 9th longest match overall
Alcaraz has never lost a match from two sets to love up
Bracket Challenge Final Weekend
We have winners. The women’s division of the Served Bracket Challenge is in the can.
Congratulations to TeddyBear, the winner of the women’s Bracket Challenge with 2,043 points behind a spotless bracket from the round of 16 on. TeddyBear beat 2,945 other players.
Despite not picking the winner, Andy beat the Served team with 1,752 points, pulling off a win over JW (1,721), who correctly predicted Rybakina. Andy finished in 151st place and JW landed at 231.
Both the ATP winner and overall winner are still up for grabs with 103 possible points available for the men’s final (100 for picking the winner and three bonus points in seed differential if Djokovic wins).
110
Consecutive slam matches in which Sabalenka won at least one set
Sabalenka hasn’t lost a Slam match in straight sets since the 2020 US Open (to Victoria Azarenka). That’s 110 Slam matches avoiding a blowout. The next longest streak is Naomi Osaka’s 12 matches.
The Toughest Out
Sabalenka has lost eight slam matches during that stretch, and most were tight scorelines—showing how hard it is to knock Sabalenka out of a major. Only five of her 16 lost sets were worse than a 6–4 scoreline at the end.
2023 French Open semifinal: Karolina Muchova, 7-6, 6-7, 7-5
2023 Wimbledon semifinal: Ons Jabeur, 6-7, 6-4, 6-3
2023 US Open final: Coco Gauff, 2-6, 6-3, 6-3
2024 French Open quarterfinal: Mirra Andreeva, 6-7, 6-4, 6-4
2025 French Open final: Coco Gauff, 6-7, 6-2, 6-4
2025 Wimbledon semifinal: Amanda Anisimova 6-4, 4-6, 6-4
2026 Australian Open final: Elena Rybakina, 6-4, 3-6, 6-4
🍿 Day 15 Matches
🏆Carlos Alcaraz [1] vs. Novak Djokovic [4]
🗨️ Join us in the Substack chat at the start of the night session!
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Incredible how Rybakina's mental game has evolved from Wimbledon to now. That quote about not stressing because "there's always next week" shows she's figured out something most athletes chase their whole careers. Being able to sleep well before a final and calmdown when down 3-0 in the third says more about her ceiling than the serve stats honestly.